A Second Trump Presidency? Potential Economic Effects.

A Second Trump Presidency? Potential Economic Effects

Tani Fukui Shan Ahmed Drew T. Matus
FEB 29, 2024

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Key Takeaways

  • Under a second Trump presidency, we expect international trade policy to come into focus again, with trade-exposed sectors particularly vulnerable to volatile policy changes.
  • Vastly different conditions prevail now compared with 2016. Higher government debt is a likely constraint on President Trump’s agenda, while greater domestic agreement on industrial policy and China would create a tailwind.