U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook Lifting Fog

U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook Lifting Fog

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William Pattison Michael Steinberg Derek Tong Jacob Kurosaki Kiel Deitrich
JAN 31, 2024

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Executive Summary

  • We believe private commercial real estate prices may be near or past the trough, following the October trough in the public REIT sector.
  • We believe all property types will benefit from a moderating construction pipeline in the coming years, though office and some pockets of multifamily will work through vacancy challenges in 2024.
  • Real estate cap rates / required returns are stabilizing (and possibly modestly declining), while real estate fundamentals are moderating. As such, the start of the next cycle could be less “V-shaped” than a traditional real estate recovery in our view.