January Economic Monthly

Are Rising State-Level
Unemployment Rates Trying
To Tell Us Something?

Drew T. Matus Tani Fukui Shan Ahmed
JAN 18, 2024

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Although economic data are appearing more benign, we remain cautious around economic fundamentals. Unemployment at the state level is rising despite rosy-seeming national levels. We continue to watch the general health of the consumer and are worried about how much longer they can continue to carry the economy. Our base forecast—including a recession and rate cuts beginning toward the end of the second quarter—remains unchanged.